May 2008 Upfront

Trend Analysis
Pink’s future has a AAA rating

Futurist Daniel Pink is the hottest item on the education lecture circuit these days -- it seems everyone wants to know what’s ahead for education and the economy.

Pink’s answer: abundance, Asia, and automation.

Abundance covers pretty much all the “necessities” that older generations would scoff at. For instance, people didn’t realize how unfulfilled their lives were without iPods or designer toilet brushes, says Pink, the best-selling author of A Whole New Mind. Homes keep getting bigger, and the self-storage industry is booming because people have so much stuff.

Despite all the dismay over the perceived outsourcing of jobs, the Asia factor really hasn’t been realized, he said at the Consortium for School Networking’s (CoSN) annual conference in Washington in March. “Off-shoring is overhyped in the short run, but underhyped in the long run.”

The United States still leads in the manufacturing economy, but Pink noted that more routine work is being sent to India and to Asian countries where people with college degrees and certifications work much more cheaply. India’s population is more than 1.1 billion, and by its sheer size it will produce many more qualified workers than the U.S. Plus, the Internet has made communication much, much cheaper and easier.

Automation could be the bigger story, though. People who earned accounting and law degrees, believing those fields were steady or “something to fall back on,” now see their jobs become automated, Pink said. For instance, people who want an uncontested divorce can go to Internet sites that will do the paperwork for about $250, and millions of Americans now use TurboTax software instead of an accountant to file taxes.

Pink also has well-known theories about how the more creative right brain must interact with the more analytical left brain. While the left’s skills are extremely important, he said, the right has the ability to put those in context and understand complex situations.

So how does this affect education? Pink is squarely in the 21st century skills camp on this one. He says it puts importance on how to place facts in context rather than the ability to find them. For today’s students, this means seeing the broader picture is more important than focusing on one area.

Another vital skill is empathy and the ability to see the world through others’ eyes, something that may be lost as executives move upward.

Other education-related trends Pink focused on in his speech:

• Arts education is a must to develop the creative, right-brain thinkers that will be so necessary.

• Schools need to develop new metrics and ways of assessing students’ knowledge beyond standardized tests such as the SAT.

• Motivated teachers and administrators should have more autonomy to seek out and try more creative approaches to their jobs.

Overall, educators must not rely on past experience to shape the skills students will need in the changing economy: “Our kids’ economic future is qualitatively different from our past,” he said. “The purpose of public education is not to deliver employees to employers.”

Joetta Sack-Min, Associate Editor

Inflation hits construction costs

Spending more and getting less isn’t just occurring at the grocery store these days. It’s also the unfortunate trend in school construction -- and it’s getting worse.

School districts spent almost $20.8 billion on new buildings, renovations, and additions last year, an $800 million increase over 2006, according to School Planning & Management’s annual school construction report, which looks at the national picture and trends in 12 regions.

But those expenditures resulted in fewer projects because the average square-foot costs increased about 6 percent, mainly caused by increasing costs for labor and materials but also for upgrades such as technology and environmentally friendly designs.

Analyst Paul Abramson found that 63 percent of the $20.8 billion was spent on new construction, 18 percent went for additions to existing structures, and 19 percent was used for renovations and retrofits for older buildings. It was the first time since 1983 that districts spent more on renovations than additions. And the percentage spent on new construction was the highest since 1979 -- shortly before the bulk of the baby boomers graduated and enrollments plummeted.

The analysis shows that the vast majority of money was spent in fast-growing Southern and Southwestern states, including California, Texas, and Florida, and the region that includes New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

School construction spending has reached record levels this decade, but don’t expect to see more increases in coming years. Abramson expects total spending to drop below $20 billion this year, based on the data on projects that are underway.

However, the inflation will likely continue, according to Abramson, who is president of Stanton, Leggett & Associates, a school facilities consulting firm in Harrison, NY.

His advice for districts:

• Don’t delay projects -- construction costs are increasing about 1 percent each month -- and stay on schedule to avoid even higher costs.

• Don’t make short-sighted design mistakes that could limit the future use of a building, such as foregoing air conditioning to save money.

• Spend more for quality products and green designs that will lower future maintenance costs.

• Look for community partners to share space and costs.

• Build flexible, useful spaces, and avoid wasted spaces such as wide corridors and multi-purpose rooms.

Will all of this save money? “Not necessarily, but it will result in better buildings that will be less expensive to operate over the long haul and that will provide community services as well as space for children,” Abramson says.

Joetta Sack-Min, Associate Editor

Drug testing faces setback in Washington state

In a setback for drug testing advocates, the Washington Supreme Court has ruled that random drug testing of student athletes violates the state constitution, even though other states and the U.S. Constitution allow it.

The eight-year-old case started when athletes sued the Wahkiakum School District for requiring them to take urine tests to participate in sports. If the tests indicated drug or alcohol use, the student was suspended from sports but wasn’t reported to police.

At the time, youth substance abuse was identified in surveys as the top community problem, but the court ruled that opinion alone is not enough to allow drug testing when there’s no reason to suspect the student is using drugs.

In Illinois, athletes who compete in postseason events will be subject to random tests for performance-enhancing drugs starting next fall. The program, run through the Illinois High School Association, is the first to be established without a legislative mandate. Florida, New Jersey, and Texas conduct mandatory, random steroid tests of high school athletes.

Who’s minding our kids?

Who’s taking care of the nation’s 19 million preschool children? Almost half of the caregivers are relatives, with grandparents leading the way, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Grandparents are the primary caregivers for about 20 percent of 11.3 million preschool children whose mothers are employed, the Census Bureau said in Who’s Minding the Kids? Child Care Arrangements: Spring 2005. That’s slightly less than the percentage of children under age 5 who spend their time in an organized daycare program, and slightly more than the percentage of fathers who provide child care.

The report says significant differences can be found when looking at the numbers along racial lines. If the mother is unemployed, African-American grandparents are the most likely to provide child care. If the mother is working, grandparents who are Asian are the most likely.

Fathers are more than twice as likely to provide child care if the mother works an evening or night shift than if the mother has a daytime job.

Childcare costs have risen significantly over the past 20 years, with families paying an average of $107 per week for child care, compared to $73 in 1985. Families in poverty spend almost one-third of their income on child care, compared to 6 percent for those who are at the poverty level or above. Six percent of children ages 5 to 11 and 33 percent in the 12 to 14 age group regularly care for themselves, according to the study.

Notes from the testing front

Do you remember the chorus to the classic song, “People Get Ready”? Well, on the testing front this month, we can tell you: There’s a train coming.

Here are some recent developments:

• Math panel: America’s math education system is “broken” and is not preparing today’s students with the skills necessary to become engineers and scientists, a presidential panel said in late March. The National Mathematics Advisory Panel, convened by President Bush in 2006, said schools must find ways to improve instruction and make better textbooks.

U.S. students trail their peers from 23 industrialized countries in math, according to test scores released last year. One reason, panel members said, is the elementary and middle school math curricula cover too many topics without enough depth.

• NAEP: Eleven states will participate in a 12th-grade version of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), testing students in reading and math. The move, approved by the National Assessment Governing Board, could result in state-by-state comparisons of how high school seniors are performing on the test. The states’ names had not been released at press time.

Meanwhile, the board also said seven large districts will be added to the Trial Urban District Assessment that is administered to students in grades four and eight. Currently, 11 districts take part in the assessment; the new districts’ names have not been released.

The expanded testing comes in the wake of a report that says NAEP provides a “distorted picture of achievement” because it focuses chiefly on basic academic skills and critical thinking. The report by Richard Rothstein of the Economic Policy Institute says NAEP ignores areas such as the development of citizenship, appreciation of the arts, and career and occupational development. Rothstein and coauthors Rebecca Jacobsen and Tamara Wilder say NAEP should expand its scope in 36 states where there are high concentrations of disadvantaged youth.

• International benchmarks: The National Governors Association, Council of Chief State School Officers, and Achieve Inc. are working on a series of international benchmarks so the scores of U.S. students can be compared to other countries. Still not determined is whether states would participate in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) or measure how state standards compare to other nations.

Proposals are expected to be unveiled this summer at the governors’ annual meeting.

• Texas and testing: Four teacher organizations in Texas say the state should pull back on high-stakes testing because schools are focusing more on preparations and rankings than learning. Texas’ system, in place since 1993, is widely considered the model for No Child Left Behind.

The Select Committee on Public School Accountability is considering changes in the rating system for schools. The committee will make its recommendations to the state Legislature before the 2009 session starts.

During testimony before the committee, Richard Kouri of the Texas State Teachers Association said the current system shows “how a child is viewed, how a school is viewed, and even the salaries of teachers. … Everybody is living and dying based on what these accountability ratings show.”

Anti-union group takes aim at teachers

An anti-union group is asking parents, students, and teachers to select the 10 worst “unionized teachers in America” and is offering $10,000 incentives to winners who allow the Center for Union Facts to write about them on a website.

The offer, first reported in USA Today in mid-March, says the group wants to “jump-start a conversation” about how difficult it is to get rid of bad teachers.

Attorney Rick Berman told the newspaper that his goal is not to “humiliate anyone.” Instead, he said schools should adopt his “severance package” plan to “get people to voluntarily quit.”

Berman, whose website is called teachersunionexposed.com, said he won’t publish details about teachers who don’t agree to the terms or accept the reward.

As you might expect, the nation’s top two teachers’ unions say the program is flawed.

But Rick Hess, a researcher with the American Enterprise Institute, said unions and school districts are “not doing a good job of identifying ineffective teachers and removing them, so publicity which casts a light on that is helpful.”

For more information on school districts and unions, see our April cover story, “State of the Unions,” in the Archives section of www.asbj.com.